Where is this course held?

Upcoming sessions run in Paris, Munich, Barcelona, Amsterdam, London, Cape Town, Vienna.

How much does the course cost?

Fees start from £2,750 per delegate, depending on the city. Fees include tuition and course materials.

Do participants receive a certificate?

Yes. Delegates who complete the course receive a London Leadership Management Innovation certificate of completion.

Can this course be delivered in-house for our team?

Yes. LLMI can tailor and deliver this course privately for your organisation at your premises or in one of our training cities.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment & Decision Analysis in Petroleum Projects (OG-011) Training Course

Q: How long is the Probabilistic Risk Assessment & Decision Analysis in Petroleum Projects course?

The course runs over 5 days of classroom training, usually Monday to Friday.

Q: When is the next Probabilistic Risk Assessment & Decision Analysis in Petroleum Projects course?

The next public date is 16 - 20 Nov 2026 in Paris. There are 15 upcoming dates in total.

Q: Can I take Probabilistic Risk Assessment & Decision Analysis in Petroleum Projects online?

Yes. Every date can also be joined live online in a virtual classroom with the trainer, for £1,280 per participant. Choose "Live online" in the dates table when you register.

Course overview

Why Attend

Petroleum projects involve significant capital investment, technical uncertainty, and exposure to market and operational risks. Traditional deterministic approaches often fall short in capturing the full range of possible outcomes.

This course introduces structured probabilistic techniques that enable professionals to quantify uncertainty, evaluate risk exposure, and make informed decisions. Participants will learn how to apply risk-based thinking to exploration, development, and production projects, improving both financial performance and operational resilience.

Course Methodology

The course combines practical learning with applied techniques through:

Real-world case studies from upstream, midstream, and downstream projects
Hands-on exercises in probabilistic risk assessment
Group discussions and scenario-based simulations
Step-by-step demonstrations of decision analysis tools
Practical frameworks for immediate workplace application

Course Objectives

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

Apply probabilistic methods to assess project risks
Model uncertainty using appropriate statistical distributions
Perform risk-based evaluations of petroleum projects
Use decision analysis tools to compare project alternatives
Interpret results from quantitative risk models
Integrate probabilistic analysis into project planning and investment decisions

Target Audience

This program is designed for:

Petroleum Engineers and Project Engineers
Project Managers in oil & gas projects
Risk and Reliability Engineers
Planning and Cost Control Professionals
Financial Analysts and Investment Decision-Makers
Professionals involved in exploration, development, and production

Target Competencies

Participants will develop the following competencies:

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)
Quantitative modeling and analysis
Decision analysis under uncertainty
Scenario evaluation and forecasting
Risk-informed investment decision-making
Communication of risk and uncertainty insights

Course outline

1Day 1: Fundamentals of Probabilistic Risk in Petroleum Projects
- Overview of risk in exploration, development, and production
- Deterministic vs. probabilistic approaches
- Types of risks: subsurface, technical, economic, operational
- Risk identification techniques and structuring uncertainty
- Building a petroleum project risk register
- Introduction to probability concepts and distributions
2Day 2: Quantitative Risk Assessment Techniques
- Statistical foundations for probabilistic analysis
- Defining input variables and uncertainty ranges
- Probability distributions (normal, lognormal, triangular, etc.)
- Sensitivity analysis and key risk drivers
- Introduction to Monte Carlo simulation concepts
- Practical exercises in quantitative risk modeling
3Day 3: Decision Analysis for Petroleum Investments
- Decision-making frameworks in oil & gas
- Decision trees and expected monetary value (EMV)
- Risk vs. reward trade-offs in petroleum projects
- Portfolio decision-making concepts
- Value of information in exploration decisions
- Case study: Drilling investment evaluation
4Day 4: Integrated Cost, Schedule & Production Risk Modeling
- Linking cost, schedule, and production uncertainties
- Modeling dependencies and correlations
- Production forecasting under uncertainty
- Scenario planning and stress testing
- Risk mitigation strategies and optimization
- Tools and software overview (conceptual)
5Day 5: Risk-Based Decision Making & Project Optimization
- Embedding probabilistic analysis into project lifecycle
- Risk-informed planning and budgeting
- Communicating probabilistic results to stakeholders
- Governance and reporting of risk in petroleum projects
- Industry best practices and lessons learned
- Final group case study and presentations

Schedule

Dates and fees

15 upcoming dates in 7 cities. Fees are per delegate; bring colleagues and every seat is discounted. Every date can also be joined live online for £1,280.

All dates as PDF

November 2026

16NOV 16 - 20 Nov 2026Mon to Fri · 5 daysNext session

ParisFrance · Classroom

£3,250per delegate2+ people: £2,600 each

December 2026

7DEC 7 - 11 Dec 2026Mon to Fri · 5 days

MunichGermany · Classroom

£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each

21DEC 21 - 25 Dec 2026Mon to Fri · 5 days

BarcelonaSpain · Classroom

£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each

January 2027

11JAN 11 - 15 Jan 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days

AmsterdamNetherlands · Classroom

£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each

February 2027

8FEB 8 - 12 Feb 2027Mon to Fri · 5 daysOur home city

LondonUnited Kingdom · Classroom

£2,750per delegate2+ people: £2,200 each

March 2027

8MAR 8 - 12 Mar 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days

MunichGermany · Classroom

£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each

April 2027

12APR 12 - 16 Apr 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days

Cape TownSouth Africa · Classroom

£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each

May 2027

10MAY 10 - 14 May 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days

BarcelonaSpain · Classroom

£3,850per delegate2+ people: £3,080 each

June 2027

14JUN 14 - 18 Jun 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days

ParisFrance · Classroom

£3,250per delegate2+ people: £2,600 each

July 2027

12JUL 12 - 16 Jul 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days

MunichGermany · Classroom

£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each

August 2027

9AUG 9 - 13 Aug 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days

BarcelonaSpain · Classroom

£3,850per delegate2+ people: £3,080 each

September 2027

13SEP 13 - 17 Sep 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days

AmsterdamNetherlands · Classroom

£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each

October 2027

11OCT 11 - 15 Oct 2027Mon to Fri · 5 daysOur home city

LondonUnited Kingdom · Classroom

£2,750per delegate2+ people: £2,200 each

November 2027

8NOV 8 - 12 Nov 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days

MunichGermany · Classroom

£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each

December 2027

13DEC 13 - 17 Dec 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days

ViennaAustria · Classroom

£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each

Live online, on the same dates

Join the class in real time from your office or home: live sessions with the trainer, group discussion, course materials and a certificate of completion. Joining details are emailed before the course starts.

November 2026

16NOV 16 - 20 Nov 2026Mon to Fri · 5 daysNext session

Live onlineVirtual classroom · join from anywhere