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Professional training course · OG-010

Uncertainty Modeling & Risk-Based Decision Making in Energy Projects

Energy projects operate under conditions where volatility, technical complexity, and long investment cycles make uncertainty a critical factor in success. Managing this…

  • 5 daysClassroom
  • 13Upcoming dates
  • 7Cities
  • £2,250Fees from
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Uncertainty Modeling & Risk-Based Decision Making in Energy Projects
Next classroom session London 14 - 18 Dec 2026 · £4,200 Also available Munich 18 - 22 Jan 2027 · £4,250

Course overview

Why Attend

Energy projects operate under conditions where volatility, technical complexity, and long investment cycles make uncertainty a critical factor in success. Managing this uncertainty effectively requires more than traditional risk registers—it demands structured modeling and disciplined decision frameworks.

This course provides practical techniques to model uncertainty, quantify risk exposure, and support high-impact decisions across the project lifecycle. Participants will learn how to transform uncertain variables into actionable insights, improving confidence in investment, planning, and operational decisions.

Course Methodology

The program is designed to balance theory with practical application through:

  • Industry-based case studies from oil, gas, and energy projects
  • Guided exercises in uncertainty modeling and risk evaluation
  • Group discussions and decision-making simulations
  • Step-by-step demonstrations of analytical techniques
  • Practical frameworks that can be immediately applied in the workplace

Course Objectives

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

  • Model uncertainty using structured quantitative approaches
  • Apply risk-based decision-making techniques in complex projects
  • Evaluate project scenarios using probabilistic analysis
  • Assess the impact of uncertainty on cost, schedule, and performance
  • Improve decision quality through data-driven insights
  • Integrate uncertainty modeling into project governance and reporting

Target Audience

This course is suitable for:

  • Project Managers and Engineers in energy and oil & gas
  • Risk and Planning Specialists
  • Investment and Financial Analysts
  • Operations and Asset Management Professionals
  • Decision-makers involved in capital and strategic projects

Target Competencies

Participants will develop capabilities in:

  • Uncertainty modeling and probabilistic thinking
  • Quantitative risk analysis
  • Scenario development and evaluation
  • Risk-based decision-making
  • Strategic planning under uncertainty
  • Communication of risk insights to stakeholders

Course outline

  1. 1Day 1: Foundations of Uncertainty in Energy Projects
    • Understanding uncertainty vs. risk in energy environments
    • Sources of uncertainty (market, technical, geopolitical, operational)
    • Risk management frameworks in energy projects
    • Techniques for identifying and structuring uncertainty
    • Building a robust risk and uncertainty register
    • Qualitative assessment and prioritization
  2. 2Day 2: Quantitative Uncertainty Modeling
    • Introduction to probabilistic modeling concepts
    • Key statistical tools for uncertainty analysis
    • Defining input distributions and assumptions
    • Sensitivity analysis and key risk drivers
    • Introduction to simulation techniques (e.g., Monte Carlo concepts)
    • Interpreting and validating model outputs
  3. 3Day 3: Risk-Based Decision Analysis
    • Principles of decision-making under uncertainty
    • Decision trees and expected value concepts
    • Evaluating alternatives using risk-adjusted metrics
    • Risk appetite and decision criteria
    • Scenario comparison and trade-off analysis
    • Case study: Energy investment decision
  4. 4Day 4: Integrated Risk Modeling for Projects
    • Linking cost, schedule, and performance risks
    • Modeling dependencies and correlations
    • Scenario planning and stress testing
    • Risk mitigation strategies and optimization
    • Introduction to risk modeling tools (conceptual overview)
    • Practical workshop: building an integrated model
  5. 5Day 5: Embedding Risk-Based Decision Making
    • Applying risk insights across the project lifecycle
    • Governance and risk reporting frameworks
    • Communicating uncertainty to senior stakeholders
    • Supporting strategic and operational decisions
    • Lessons learned and industry best practices
    • Final group exercise and action planning

Schedule

Dates and fees

13 upcoming dates in 7 cities. Fees are per delegate; bring colleagues and every seat is discounted.

All dates as PDF
December 2026
14DEC 14 - 18 Dec 2026Mon to Fri · 5 daysNext sessionOur home city
United Kingdom flag LondonUnited Kingdom · Classroom
£4,200per delegate2+ people: £3,360 each
Register
January 2027
18JAN 18 - 22 Jan 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days
Germany flag MunichGermany · Classroom
£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each
Register
February 2027
15FEB 15 - 19 Feb 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days
Spain flag BarcelonaSpain · Classroom
£3,850per delegate2+ people: £3,080 each
Register
March 2027
15MAR 15 - 19 Mar 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days
Spain flag MadridSpain · Classroom
£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each
Register
April 2027
19APR 19 - 23 Apr 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days
Italy flag RomeItaly · Classroom
£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each
Register
May 2027
17MAY 17 - 21 May 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days
Malaysia flag Kuala LumpurMalaysia · Classroom
£2,250per delegate2+ people: £1,800 each
Register
June 2027
21JUN 21 - 25 Jun 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days
Spain flag BarcelonaSpain · Classroom
£3,850per delegate2+ people: £3,080 each
Register
July 2027
19JUL 19 - 23 Jul 2027Mon to Fri · 5 daysOur home city
United Kingdom flag LondonUnited Kingdom · Classroom
£4,200per delegate2+ people: £3,360 each
Register
August 2027
16AUG 16 - 20 Aug 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days
Germany flag MunichGermany · Classroom
£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each
Register
September 2027
20SEP 20 - 24 Sep 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days
Spain flag BarcelonaSpain · Classroom
£3,850per delegate2+ people: £3,080 each
Register
October 2027
18OCT 18 - 22 Oct 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days
United Arab Emirates flag DubaiUnited Arab Emirates · Classroom
£2,550per delegate2+ people: £2,040 each
Register
November 2027
15NOV 15 - 19 Nov 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days
Italy flag RomeItaly · Classroom
£4,250per delegate2+ people: £3,400 each
Register
December 2027
20DEC 20 - 24 Dec 2027Mon to Fri · 5 days
Malaysia flag Kuala LumpurMalaysia · Classroom
£2,250per delegate2+ people: £1,800 each
Register

Questions

Frequently asked questions

How long is the Uncertainty Modeling & Risk-Based Decision Making in Energy Projects course?

The course runs over 5 days of classroom training, usually Monday to Friday.

When is the next Uncertainty Modeling & Risk-Based Decision Making in Energy Projects course?

The next public date is 14 - 18 Dec 2026 in London. There are 13 upcoming dates in total.

Where is this course held?

Upcoming sessions run in London, Munich, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, Kuala Lumpur, Dubai.

How much does the course cost?

Fees start from £2,250 per delegate, depending on the city. Fees include tuition and course materials.

Do participants receive a certificate?

Yes. Delegates who complete the course receive a London Leadership Management Innovation certificate of completion.

Can this course be delivered in-house for our team?

Yes. LLMI can tailor and deliver this course privately for your organisation at your premises or in one of our training cities.

Course information last updated 14 November 2026.

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