Uncertainty Modeling & Risk-Based Decision Making in Energy Projects

Course overview

Course outline

1. 1Day 1: Foundations of Uncertainty in Energy Projects

   • Understanding uncertainty vs. risk in energy environments
   • Sources of uncertainty (market, technical, geopolitical, operational)
   • Risk management frameworks in energy projects
   • Techniques for identifying and structuring uncertainty
   • Building a robust risk and uncertainty register
   • Qualitative assessment and prioritization
2. 2Day 2: Quantitative Uncertainty Modeling

   • Introduction to probabilistic modeling concepts
   • Key statistical tools for uncertainty analysis
   • Defining input distributions and assumptions
   • Sensitivity analysis and key risk drivers
   • Introduction to simulation techniques (e.g., Monte Carlo concepts)
   • Interpreting and validating model outputs
3. 3Day 3: Risk-Based Decision Analysis

   • Principles of decision-making under uncertainty
   • Decision trees and expected value concepts
   • Evaluating alternatives using risk-adjusted metrics
   • Risk appetite and decision criteria
   • Scenario comparison and trade-off analysis
   • Case study: Energy investment decision
4. 4Day 4: Integrated Risk Modeling for Projects

   • Linking cost, schedule, and performance risks
   • Modeling dependencies and correlations
   • Scenario planning and stress testing
   • Risk mitigation strategies and optimization
   • Introduction to risk modeling tools (conceptual overview)
   • Practical workshop: building an integrated model
5. 5Day 5: Embedding Risk-Based Decision Making

   • Applying risk insights across the project lifecycle
   • Governance and risk reporting frameworks
   • Communicating uncertainty to senior stakeholders
   • Supporting strategic and operational decisions
   • Lessons learned and industry best practices
   • Final group exercise and action planning